The past few years I've had an approximate success rate of 75% predicting these things - usually about 18 categories correct. I'm not sure I'll do that well this year given the how weird some of these races are, so I'm going to be a bit bolder in some of my picks than usual and hopefully it'll pay off. Probably not. We'll see.
Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln - I know some are jumping towards Ang Lee for Life of Pi but I think industry respect will keep Spielberg ahead.
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour - I correctly predicted Marion Cotillard for the French upset back in 2007, I think it will happen again tonight.
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - My head says it will be Waltz, and my gut feels De Niro for the upset, but since I'm probably gonna get this wrong no matter what, I'm following my heart and predicting Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables - even though I'm hoping somehow support fell off during the last weeks of voting and Field can upset, I know better than to predict it.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln - Again, I think industry respect and the fact that this actually deserves to win over Argo will have kept it on enough ballots. I will not be at all surprised to see Chris Terrio win for Argo, but I'm calling Kushner.
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina - This is another where people have started to shift towards Pi, but I think it's still Anna Karenina's to lose, and Lincoln's next in line, not Pi. I could of course be very wrong. God help us if Les Miserables wins.
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. My head says Les Miserables will probably get this, but I'm going with my gut and the track record of big prosthetic-based stuff winning here.
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables. My gut says Skyfall or Pi, but here I'm going with my head.
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi. I think. Maybe.
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour, but I will not be at all surprised by an upset.
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman, but again, The Gatekeepers won't shock me.
Best Documentary Short: Inocente - if not this, then Open Heart
Best Live Action Short: Buzkashi Boys - if not this, then Curfew
So those are my predictions.
If you're counting, I'm calling Beasts of the Southern Wild AND Silver Linings Playbook AND Zero Dark Thirty to go home empty-handed.
Les Mis to go the Dreamgirls route with Sound Mixing and Supporting Actress.
Argo to get only Picture and Editing.
Lincoln and Life of Pi to tie for most wins at 4 apiece.
I'll be happy if I get 16 right. I'm not confident I'll get more, as there are about 10 categories here I'm predicting based on a guess or wishful thinking.
I'll probably be live-tweeting @sl8rlawrence if you'd like to follow along.