The past few years I've had an approximate success rate of 75% predicting these things - usually about 18 categories correct. I'm not sure I'll do that well this year given the how weird some of these races are, so I'm going to be a bit bolder in some of my picks than usual and hopefully it'll pay off. Probably not. We'll see.
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Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln - I know some are jumping towards Ang Lee for Life of Pi but I think industry respect will keep Spielberg ahead.
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour - I correctly predicted Marion Cotillard for the French upset back in 2007, I think it will happen again tonight.
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - My head says it will be Waltz, and my gut feels De Niro for the upset, but since I'm probably gonna get this wrong no matter what, I'm following my heart and predicting Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables - even though I'm hoping somehow support fell off during the last weeks of voting and Field can upset, I know better than to predict it.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln - Again, I think industry respect and the fact that this actually deserves to win over Argo will have kept it on enough ballots. I will not be at all surprised to see Chris Terrio win for Argo, but I'm calling Kushner.
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina - This is another where people have started to shift towards Pi, but I think it's still Anna Karenina's to lose, and Lincoln's next in line, not Pi. I could of course be very wrong. God help us if Les Miserables wins.
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. My head says Les Miserables will probably get this, but I'm going with my gut and the track record of big prosthetic-based stuff winning here.
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables. My gut says Skyfall or Pi, but here I'm going with my head.
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi. I think. Maybe.
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour, but I will not be at all surprised by an upset.
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman, but again, The Gatekeepers won't shock me.
Best Documentary Short: Inocente - if not this, then Open Heart
Best Live Action Short: Buzkashi Boys - if not this, then Curfew
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So those are my predictions.
If you're counting, I'm calling Beasts of the Southern Wild AND Silver Linings Playbook AND Zero Dark Thirty to go home empty-handed.
Les Mis to go the Dreamgirls route with Sound Mixing and Supporting Actress.
Argo to get only Picture and Editing.
Lincoln and Life of Pi to tie for most wins at 4 apiece.
I'll be happy if I get 16 right. I'm not confident I'll get more, as there are about 10 categories here I'm predicting based on a guess or wishful thinking.
I'll probably be live-tweeting @sl8rlawrence if you'd like to follow along.
Showing posts with label The Hobbit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Hobbit. Show all posts
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
2012 Oscars: Production Design
Yikes, the show is creeping up on me and I've still got plenty of categories to do...
Trucking along, then.
Nominees
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
5. Les Miserables
The whole movie was a close-up on faces. We almost never get to see the sets, and when we do they look bizarre, cartoonish, and disproportioned. For a movie trying to capture something realistic in its musical material, the design at times looks weirdly like a Tim Burton movie. Stupid, lazy nomination.
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Any trip to Middle Earth is going to look astounding, and there were plenty of new elements here - Goblin's cave, the Misty Mountain goblin kingdom, etc. But we've seen most of this stuff before - the Shire, Rivendell, etc. So not a stupid nomination, but still a lazy one.
3. Life of Pi
Bearing in mind that production design encapsulates the entire visual world of the film (except the framing of the camera), and not just the sets, justifies Life of Pi's nomination. Technically speaking, makeup, costumes, and visual effects are all subcategories of Production Design. So if we were just looking at the lifeboat, well that would be a bit too simplistic. But there's also the zoo, Pondicherry, the floating island, and Adult Pi's house. Then there's the visuals of the sunsets and the water, the whale and the flying fish and the jelly fish. THEN there's the tiger-vision sequence which was really a beautiful experience all by itself.
2. Lincoln
The basic job here was historical authenticity. The filmmakers wanted to recreate a time period, and they did it impeccably. They fully immersed you in this time period and these locations and this world. The only reason I list it above a movie like Pi is that I was at times only slightly more of the effects-driven nature of Pi's design. It's a minute, subjective reaction and I'd be totally cool if either film wins this award.
1. Anna Karenina
One of the most talked-about production design jobs of the year, Sarah Greenwood's theatre-inspired sets for Anna Karenina made for a fascinating, fun, and challenging experience. Some people hated the whole idea of the film, creating it like a play taking place mostly in one theater. But most people were at least intrigued by it, and I think it worked. And look at all the things they did with that space! Ballrooms and bedrooms and office spaces and an ice skating rink and a freaking horse race all existed here. The transitions were noticeable, yet somehow not jarring. Because the filmmakers were so committed to their theatre-inspired world, it all gelled naturally and efficiently. Sure, it might take some getting used to, but I would be that many people who hated it the first time might like it a little more the second time after knowing what they were getting themselves into. Yes, this is the most obvious or most production design in the bunch, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not the best.
Should win: Anna Karenina (though Lincoln or Life of Pi would be just fine)
Will win: Anna Karenina, because the Academy tends to skew towards the obvious pick in this category. Possibly Lincoln if they're looking for more ways to reward it since there's no way it wins best picture now with the way Argo has picked up steam.
Should have been nominated: Argo, Cloud Atlas
Trucking along, then.
Nominees
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
5. Les Miserables
The whole movie was a close-up on faces. We almost never get to see the sets, and when we do they look bizarre, cartoonish, and disproportioned. For a movie trying to capture something realistic in its musical material, the design at times looks weirdly like a Tim Burton movie. Stupid, lazy nomination.
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Any trip to Middle Earth is going to look astounding, and there were plenty of new elements here - Goblin's cave, the Misty Mountain goblin kingdom, etc. But we've seen most of this stuff before - the Shire, Rivendell, etc. So not a stupid nomination, but still a lazy one.
3. Life of Pi
Bearing in mind that production design encapsulates the entire visual world of the film (except the framing of the camera), and not just the sets, justifies Life of Pi's nomination. Technically speaking, makeup, costumes, and visual effects are all subcategories of Production Design. So if we were just looking at the lifeboat, well that would be a bit too simplistic. But there's also the zoo, Pondicherry, the floating island, and Adult Pi's house. Then there's the visuals of the sunsets and the water, the whale and the flying fish and the jelly fish. THEN there's the tiger-vision sequence which was really a beautiful experience all by itself.
2. Lincoln
The basic job here was historical authenticity. The filmmakers wanted to recreate a time period, and they did it impeccably. They fully immersed you in this time period and these locations and this world. The only reason I list it above a movie like Pi is that I was at times only slightly more of the effects-driven nature of Pi's design. It's a minute, subjective reaction and I'd be totally cool if either film wins this award.
1. Anna Karenina
One of the most talked-about production design jobs of the year, Sarah Greenwood's theatre-inspired sets for Anna Karenina made for a fascinating, fun, and challenging experience. Some people hated the whole idea of the film, creating it like a play taking place mostly in one theater. But most people were at least intrigued by it, and I think it worked. And look at all the things they did with that space! Ballrooms and bedrooms and office spaces and an ice skating rink and a freaking horse race all existed here. The transitions were noticeable, yet somehow not jarring. Because the filmmakers were so committed to their theatre-inspired world, it all gelled naturally and efficiently. Sure, it might take some getting used to, but I would be that many people who hated it the first time might like it a little more the second time after knowing what they were getting themselves into. Yes, this is the most obvious or most production design in the bunch, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not the best.
Should win: Anna Karenina (though Lincoln or Life of Pi would be just fine)
Will win: Anna Karenina, because the Academy tends to skew towards the obvious pick in this category. Possibly Lincoln if they're looking for more ways to reward it since there's no way it wins best picture now with the way Argo has picked up steam.
Should have been nominated: Argo, Cloud Atlas
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